How Bond Markets Work

A bond is a debt security issued by a company, public authority, supranational institution, or other entity as a promise to pay interest to the lender (bondholder) for a given period of time and reimburse the original principal at the term’s end. Bonds have financed government and private enterprise for centuries and are traditionally regarded as less risky than equity shares since bondholders in most countries have a legal claim to an issuer’s assets. Bond volatility is generally lower than stock volatility, but bonds also have offered lower historical returns because the debt holder is not an equity owner and typically does not participate in company profits or value appreciation.

New bonds are issued through an underwriting process in which securities firms or banks form a syndicate which buys all the bond debt from the borrower and resells the bonds to institutional and individual investors. Government bonds are typically issued through an auction. The secondary bond market comprises mostly decentralized venues where secondary trading occurs between dealers, such as investment banks and other institutions, in the over-the-counter markets. These dealers provide liquidity to the markets and take trading risk. Some corporate bonds are listed on exchanges, with the NYSE being the largest centralized bond market.

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How Capital Markets Function

The stock market refers to the exchanges and networks where buyers and sellers trade existing shares of company stock. The market, which comprises the stock exchanges, over-the-counter market (OTC), and electronic communication networks (ECNs), is essentially a big auction where buyers and sellers negotiate their transactions indirectly, through brokers and dealers, or directly, through electronic trading. The market provides a way for existing company shares to efficiently change hands, and for investors to access liquidity and discover prices.

A transaction always involves two parties—a buyer and a seller. These parties usually have different views of the company’s profit outlook. As with any free market, stock prices are influenced by expectations and demand. You might view a stock’s price as reflecting the consensus view of all buyers and sellers in the market. So what affects their opinions? New information—and particularly information related to expected company performance.

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An Overview Of How Markets Work

Markets have functioned throughout human history. The first market arose when a few people had something to trade and negotiated an outcome that the participants considered mutually beneficial. While markets have grown more complex and sophisticated, they still offer a simple and powerful way for people to exchange value and improve their well being.

Entrepreneurs and investors meet in the capital markets. People supply capital with an expectation of receiving a reasonable return for its use. Their investment capital fuels economic activity. Businesses compete for this capital by offering higher returns, and investors compete with each other to find the most attractive returns. This competition quickly drives prices to fair value, ensuring that companies must offer returns in line with their perceived risk. When markets work properly, no investor can expect greater returns without bearing greater risk.

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Should You Follow Lower Expenses Or Star Ratings?

Is everything you need to know about mutual fund investing
contained on this napkin?

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This sketch by Carl Richards originally appeared in The New York Times. More of his sketches can be found at Behaviorgap.com.

 

Probably not. But a recent Morningstar study suggests that

keeping this bit of folded wisdom in your pocket might be

more helpful than consulting an army of experts in the search

for clever money managers.

 

Morningstar examined five broad categories of equity and

fixed-income funds over multiple periods beginning in 2005,

2006, 2007 and 2008 and ending in March 2010.

 

Funds were sorted into quintiles based on expenses and

the performance of the cheapest funds was compared to

that of the most expensive.

 

They computed total return for funds surviving through

March 2010 as well as a “success ratio” measuring the

percentage of the initial cohort that went on to survive

and outperform their peers.

 

Unsurprisingly, cheap funds outperformed their expensive cousins.

 

Commenting on the results, Morningstar Director of Mutual

Fund Research Russel Kinnel observed: “In every single time

period and data point tested, low-cost funds beat high-cost funds.”

 

A similar exercise evaluated the same funds using the Morningstar

Ratings assigned at the beginning of each time period. The ratings

showed predictive power as well, although not as pronounced as

the expenses ratios. “In general,” Kinel states, “5-star mutual

funds beat 1-star funds on our three measures, although there

were exceptions. All told, the stars guided investors to better

results in 59 out of 70 (84%) observations.”

 

So which measure is more useful for investors–fund expenses or ratings?

 

Morningstar declines to crown a champion, finding merit in both.

Expenses were a more reliable predictor (“they worked every

time”), while stars could be helpful “In identifying funds that

might be merged out of existence.”

 

For reasons unclear to us, the predictive power of expenses in

this exercise was more pronounced among equity funds than

fixed income or balanced vehicles. Among both domestic and

international equity funds, total returns in every time period

were higher for the cheapest funds compared to the 5-star funds.

 

Morningstar concludes that “Investors should make expense

ratios a primary test in fund selection. They are still the most

dependable predictor of performance.”
To learn more, visit our website:
www.thefinancialcoachinggroup.com

Michael Stokes

Michael Stokes
Registered Investment Advisor
949-600-6060
Home Office: Irvine
Locations: Anaheim Hills | Newport Beach
Huntington Beach | Orange | Long Beach | San Diego

 

It's Like Driving In The Rear-View Mirror

I’m getting ready to drive home from our family trip to Utah. Snow is everywhere and I know I need to concentrate on the road ahead.

“Keep your eyes on the road.”

That’s what we all heard in driver’s education, but as any experienced driver knows, you need to check your rear-view mirror to see what’s going on behind you.

However, the driver who insists on trying to drive while ONLY looking in the rear-view mirror is an accident waiting to happen.

The same rule applies for investing.

Past investment performance has little predictive value on what will happen in the future, yet we rely on it time and again to make our investing decisions.

Without a doubt this is the biggest and most common mistake investors make – and it’s overwhelmingly detrimental to their returns and performance.

Whether it’s trying to decide the funds they choose in their 401(k) or picking those funds from all the “fantastic software” that the online investing firms offer, it’s something everyone needs to eliminate.

To learn more, start right here and download my FREE Investors Awareness Guide right from our website.

Global Diversification – Is It A Must?

Watch this video. It’s not only entertaining but it sure tells one why being globally diversified would be a more prudent investment strategy.

This really shows that over time, wealth is distributed in many different ways.

Is What You See Really What You Get

Many investors who buy several mutual funds (equity or fixed-income) with different names and objectives believe they are diversified.

When they market drops, to their horror, they lose much of their money.

Many funds give their managers the freedom to buy whatever they think will be the proverbial goose that lays the golden egg.

This only confuses investors.

Dozens and dozens of mutual funds from the same brokerage house can have vastly different names, but own the same companies. This is NOT good for you.

Mutual funds can be a great investment – with the proper structure.

But what YOU see if often NOT what you get.

Question for you: Have you ever had an Independent Analysis done on your portfolio to determine the right mix, the correct risk, and to show you what you really own?

Start right here by downloading my FREE Investor Awareness Guide.

Do You Believe That You Can Control Something You Cannot Measure?

In a most recent article by Todd Smith of Little Things Matter, he answered my post question with: You Can’t Improve What you Don’t Measure.

Todd explained why measuring your performance is critical to achieving your goals. “Whether in business, sports, school, or any area of life, you can’t improve what you don’t measure. The same rule applies to your personal finances.” (I would encourage you to read his full article.)

Here is my challenge to you:

Let me take that same “control & measure” question to a deeper level and ask the following very important portfolio questions. Let’s see what answers you can come up with:

  1. Have you ever had an independent analysis done on your portfolio?
  2. It is important to control risk in your portfolio?
  3. Do you have a scientific method for measuring risk in your portfolio, and do you know what that number is?
  4. Is diversification important to you?
  5. Do you know how to measure diversification?
  6. Has anyone ever calculated the hidden internal costs in your investment portfolio? (Not just he management fee and expense ratios)
  7. Do you know what the expected historic rate of return is for the mix of assets you now possess?

These and other key questions are critical to the performance of your portfolio and your investing peace of mind.

In order to improve and control your portfolio, you will have to answer the above questions. Remember: You can’t improve what you don’t measure.

For more information on this and other subjects, download my FREE Investor Awareness Guide right here on our website.

To your investing success!

The MIX is Everything

Allocating and diversifying your assets wisely is no great surprise when it comes to prudent investing. Every knows not to put “all your eggs” into the same basket.

But how does one know if they have achieved proper allocation and diversification?

Successful investing means not only capturing risks that generate expected return but reducing risks that do not.

Avoidable risks include holding too few securities, betting on countries or industries, following market predictions, and speculating on “information” from rating services. To all these, diversification is the antidote. It washes away the random fortunes of individual stocks and positions your portfolio to capture the returns of broad economic forces.

For many investors, the S&P 500 represents the first equity asset class in a diversified portfolio. Although the S&P 500 Index is diversified in large US companies, investors can benefit further by adding components.

Take, for example, a portfolio that holds just US stocks (S&P 500 Index), a portfolio that holds just Japanese stocks (MSCI Japan Index), and a portfolio that holds both. The diversified portfolio has not only provided higher historical return than either alone, but it has done so with fewer negative quarters.

We diversify not only in the amount of securities we hold (thousands) but in the range of capital market strategies that are explored and developed.

In this way, investors focus on the factors that drive investment returns and reduce excess and undesirable risk.

Diversification is the most essential tool available to investors. It enables them to capture broad market forces while reducing the excess, uncompensated risk arising in individual stocks. Our strategies draw upon this power in numbers.

The proper mix accounts for 91.5% of the positive expected return in your portfolio. The MIX is Everything!

To learn more, DOWNLOAD a free copy of my Investor Awareness Guide. It takes 30 minutes to read and it will be the best financial information you will have read all year.

It's The Climate You Need To Think About

Notice how TV stations put finance next to the weather report on the evening news? In each, talking heads point at charts and intone about stuff that in most cases will be quickly forgotten. In the meantime, the long-term story gets lost.

It’s an old tradition, but a certain segment of the investing population tends to feel that they aren’t sufficiently informed about the financial world unless they have checked daily or hourly on how the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ or All Ordinaries have moved in the intervening period.

It’s a pretty harmless activity in most cases. It at least provides a conversation starter in fleeting social encounters, just as keeping up to date with tomorrow’s weather forecasts can fill an awkward silence.

But our very human focus on the day-to-day and the short term can often encourage us to make bad decisions that affect our long-term interests.

Just this past week, the market had a down day. Many people who watch the financial shows (just like they watch the weather reports) or listen to the financial news on radio, would have panicked and told their advisor to sell.

The very next day the market came back up really well. The next phone call would have been, “wait just a minute, don’t sell.”

And on it goes. From day to day to day, market sentiment shifts in reaction to news—news about the economy, news about companies, news about governments and politics and the wider world. Prices rise and prices fall in response to this news, which by definition is unpredictable.

Think of it like the weather. One day it’s sunny. The next day it rains. It’s unseasonably warm one day and uncharacteristically cool the next.

What can you do about it? Well, in the case of unpredictable weather, you can ensure you’re equipped for all conditions—an umbrella, a raincoat and some sunscreen in your bag just in case.

Likewise, in the case of investment, you can stay diversified. That means you don’t have all your money in one type of asset—like just property for instance or just shares or everything in cash. You need a mix in your portfolio so it can withstand a range of outcomes and keep you in line to meet your goals.

The nightly news is interesting, undoubtedly. But it’s like the difference between the weather and the climate. One changes constantly; the other more gradually and imperceptibly. With investment, it’s the climate you need to think about.