16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #11

“Overbought”

General: Another classic way to describe a stock or market that has gone up a lot.

When to use it: Any time you don’t know what a stock or market will do but want to sound generally bullish while also implying that the stock might be “due for a correction” (also meaningless).

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds highly informed. It sounds like common sense: The stock just went up a lot–so it must be “overbought.” It hedges all future outcomes. (Just because it’s “overbought” doesn’t mean it will go down. What if it gets more “overbought”?)  It sounds like you have command of “technical” and “quantitative” analysis, which always sounds smart–even though they’re almost always meaningless.

Why it’s meaningless: What does “overbought” mean, exactly? Does it mean that traders bought too much of the stock? How can they have done that–the amount of stock in the market didn’t change. Does it mean that traders paid too-high prices for the stock? Okay, maybe it means that. But does that mean the stock is going to go down soon? Why? In short, it’s a fancy and sophisticated-sounding way of saying nothing.

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #10

“We’re in a bottoming process.”

General: A classic way to describe a stock or market that has fallen a lot and might do anything from here.

Alternates: “Forming a base.” “Bumping along the bottom.”

When to use it: Any time you don’t know what a stock will do but want to imply that it might eventually go up but hedge yourself by saying that it also might go down.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds highly informed. The stock is “in a bottoming process.” It’s “forming a base.” It sounds reassuring, without being too precise. Sure, the stock might drop some more, you seem to be saying, but it’s generally settling in here–and then it will eventually go up. It sounds like you have command of “technical analysis,” which almost always sounds smart (and is almost always meaningless).

Why it’s meaningless: Because it describes a price pattern that has happened but does not tell you anything about what will happen. A drop followed by a sideways move does not mean the stock won’t drop more. It also does not mean the stock will go up. And it commits to no time frame.  It can be used to describe any stock that has moved sideways for a while, without offering the slightest insight into the future.

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #9

“There’s lots of cash on the sidelines”

General: A classic way to suggest that the market will eventually go up.

Alternates: “Dry powder.”

When to use it: Any time you need to explain a bullish outlook.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds like common sense: Wimpy investors are hoarding cash instead of “putting it into the market.” When these investors finally grow a pair and use their cash to buy stocks, the market will go up.

Why it’s meaningless: There is no such thing as cash “going into the market” or “coming out of the market.”  In every trade–every one–a seller sells stock to a buyer in exchange for cash. Importantly, the cash used to buy the stock does not go “into the market.” It goes to the seller. After the trade, the seller now has cash instead of the stock, and the buyer now has the stock instead of cash–and the overall amount of neither cash nor stock has changed. At some times, some investors–mutual funds, for example–might have more cash than usual in their funds (for a variety of reasons), and this cash might eventually be used to buy stocks, but this cash will not go “into the market.” It will go to the investors who own the stocks that the mutual funds buy. In short, again, cash does not go “into” and “out of” the market. Someone always holds the cash, and someone always holds the stocks. So, in a literal sense, the cash is always “on the sidelines.”

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #8

“More buyers than sellers”

When to use it: Any time you are asked to explain why the market (or a stock) is going up.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds like you know what’s really going on, which makes you sound smart and sophisticated. It sounds like you understand how the market works, in a way that Joe Schmo doesn’t.  (Ahh…there are more buyers than sellers! Insightful! Fascinating!)

Why it’s meaningless: In every trade–every one–there is exactly one buyer and exactly one seller. You cannot buy a stock without having someone sell it to you.  To say that the market or a stock is going up because there are “more buyers than sellers,” therefore, is not just meaningless, it’s wrong. What is actually happening when a stock or market ticks up is that the next buyer is willing to pay more for the stock or market than the last buyer was. What is actually happening when the market or a stock goes down, meanwhile, is that the next buyer is not willing to pay as much for the market or stock as the last buyer was. There are never “more buyers than sellers” or “more sellers than buyers.” There are simply different price levels at which a buyer and a seller are willing to trade.

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #7

“Stocks are up on ‘bargain hunting’”

General: The corollary to “profit taking.”

When to use it: Any time you are asked to explain why the market (or a stock) is up after a period of weakness.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds like you know what professional traders are doing, which makes you sound smart and plugged-in. It sounds like common sense: Traders have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to fall–and now they’re “bargain-hunting.” It doesn’t commit you to a specific recommendation or prediction. If the stock or market goes down again tomorrow, you were still right about the “bargain hunting.” If the stock or market goes up tomorrow, you can explain that that traders are now “taking profits” after yesterday’s “bargain hunting.”

Why it’s meaningless: Again, traders buy and sell stocks for dozens of reasons. And for every buyer, at any time, in any market, there is a seller on the other side of the trade. Whether or not the buyer is buying because he or she thinks they have found a “bargain”–and you have no way of knowing–the seller is at the same time ditching the stock, perhaps because he or she is “profit taking.” So collectively describing this activity as “bargain hunting” is ridiculous. Any trade, at any time, in any market can be described as “taking a profit” or “cutting a loss” or “bargain hunting” or “filling out a position,” and so on. You have no way of knowing what’s actually going on. But no one will ever prove you wrong!

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #6

“Stocks are down on ‘profit taking’”

"Stocks are down on 'profit taking'"

When to use it: Any time you are asked to explain why the market (or a stock) is down after a strong run.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds like you know what professional traders are doing, which makes you sound smart and plugged-in. It sounds like common sense: Traders have made a lot of money–now they’re “taking profits.” It doesn’t commit you to a specific recommendation or prediction. If the stock or market goes down again tomorrow, you can still have been right about the “profit taking.” If the stock or market goes up tomorrow, you can explain that that traders are now “bargain hunting” (see next smart-sounding meaningless phrase).

Why it’s meaningless: Traders buy and sell stocks for dozens of reasons. And for every seller, at any time, there is a buyer on the other side of the trade. Whether or not the seller is “taking a profit”–and you have no way of knowing–the buyer is at the same time placing a new bet on the stock. So collectively describing market activity as “profit taking” is ridiculous. Any trade, at any time, in any market, can be described as “taking a profit” or “cutting a loss” or “bargain hunting” or “filling out a position,” and so on. You have no way of knowing what’s actually going on, and there’s always someone on the other side of every trade. But no one will ever prove you wrong!

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #5

“We’re constructive on the market.”

"We're constructive on the market."

When to use it: Anytime.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds generally optimistic, which viewers will like, but it doesn’t commit you to any specific recommendation or prediction or time period. It doesn’t even require you to to say that the market will go up or down or how you are investing or think the viewer should invest. It just sounds generally optimistic, and it leaves you plenty of wiggle room if the market suddenly tanks.

Why it’s meaningless: Because being generally optimistic about the market over some unspecified time period is no different than being generally optimistic about life over some unspecified time period: Odds are, whatever happens, life will go on and the world won’t be destroyed by an asteroid. And, besides, you’re not even saying you’re “optimistic.” You’re saying you’re “constructive.” That can mean anything!

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #4

“It’s not a stock market. It’s a market of stocks.”

"It's not a stock market. It's a market of stocks."

When to use it: Anytime.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It sounds deeply profound–the sort of wisdom that can only be achieved through decades of hard work and experience. It suggests the speaker understands the market in a way that the average schmo doesn’t. It suggests that the speaker, who gets that the stock market is actually a “market of stocks,” will coin money while the average schmo loses his or her shirt.

Why it’s meaningless: Because it’s a statement of the obvious. Of course it’s “a market of stocks.” But it’s also a “stock market.” And viewing the stock market as a “market of stocks” doesn’t help you in any way, other than reminding you that all stocks don’t move up and down the same amount.

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #3

“It’s a stockpicker’s market.”

 

"It's a stockpicker's market."

Another classic. Sounds smart, but is completely meaningless.

When to use it: Especially useful in bear markets or flat markets, but can be used anytime.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It suggests that the current market environment is different from other market environments and therefore requires special skill to navigate. It implies that the speaker has this skill. It suggests that, if you’re talented enough to be “a stockpicker,” you can coin money right now–while everyone else drifts sideways or loses their shirts.

Why it’s meaningless: If you pick stocks for a living (or for your personal account), all markets are “stockpickers’ markets.” In all markets, traders are trying to buy winners and sell dogs, and in all markets only half of these traders succeed. (It’s a different half each time, of course–and most of the “winnings” of the winners are wiped out by transaction costs and taxes, but that’s a different story). It is no easier (or harder) to win the stockpicking game in a flat or bear market than in a bull market, and if you try, you’ll almost certainly do worse than if you had just bought an index fund.

 

16 Meaningless Market Phrases – #2

“I’m cautiously optimistic.”

"I'm cautiously optimistic."

A classic. Can be used in almost all circumstances and market conditions.

When to use it: Pretty much anytime.

Why it’s smart-sounding: It implies wise, prudent caution, but also a sunny outlook, which most people like. (Nobody likes a bear, especially in a bull market). It sounds more reasonable than saying, for example, “the stock is a screaming buy and will go straight up from here.” It protects the speaker against all possible outcomes. If the market drops, the speaker can say “As you know, I was cautious…” If the market goes up, the speaker can say, “As you know, I was optimistic.”

Why it’s meaningless: It’s too general to mean anything. It could have accurately described any market outcome in history, merely by adjusting the unspecified time frame. (If you were “cautiously optimistic” in 1929, you were “cautious,” which was good, and you were also optimistic, which was also good. Eventually, the market recovered!)